Key takeaways
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Office values triple: The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for Dubai offices reached a record 304.6 points, effectively tripling from its Q1 2021 base following a 9.7% year-on-year increase.
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Top performing districts: Business Bay led commercial growth with a 10.7% annual rise, while Downtown Dubai recorded the highest average capital value at AED 4,925 per square foot.
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Industrial appreciation: ValuStrat’s industrial property index reached 199.6 points—almost double its 2021 base—after warehouse capital values surged 19.6% year-on-year.
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Residential stabilization: The citywide residential VPI slipped just 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, with 80% of villa communities recording no quarterly change.
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Ready-home rebound: Completed-home transactions increased 18.5% quarter-on-quarter to 9,491 sales, indicating a recovery in ready-home activity even as off-plan registrations declined.
How is Dubai's commercial real estate outperforming the residential sector?
Dubai’s commercial property market is achieving unprecedented milestones, diverging sharply from the cooling residential sector. According to ValuStrat’s Dubai Real Estate Review Q3 2026, featured in Economy Middle East, office property values have officially tripled over the last five years. The commercial VPI reached a record 304.6 points, driven by a 9.7% annual increase. Average office values climbed to AED 2,325 per square foot (AED 25,026 per square meter), fueled by strong occupier demand and a limited supply of high-quality Grade A space.
Business Bay emerged as the strongest performer, recording a 10.7% annual increase, followed closely by the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) at 10.3%. Transactional activity also saw a significant revival, with 401 ready-office sales marking a 46.4% rebound from the previous quarter. This robust commercial performance extends to the industrial and logistics sector as well, where warehouse capital values jumped 19.6% year-on-year, pushing the industrial VPI to nearly double its 2021 base.
What are the latest trends in the residential market?
While the commercial sector booms, Dubai’s residential market is moving through a period of stabilization following sharp adjustments earlier in the year. ValuStrat data reveals that the citywide residential VPI slipped just 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3. Price stability is spreading widely, with approximately 80% of villa communities and 77% of apartment locations recording no quarterly change.
Notably, transaction dynamics are shifting back toward completed properties. Ready-home sales rebounded by 18.5% quarter-on-quarter to 9,491 transactions—the first quarterly increase since late 2025. In contrast, off-plan Oqood registrations fell 45.7% year-on-year, marking a fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Despite a 4.5% annual dip in overall residential capital values, underlying demand remains supported by strong demographic fundamentals, with Dubai adding an estimated 230,000 residents since the beginning of 2026.
