Dubai - VPI Residential Values May 2026

The Dubai residential market showed potential signs of stabilisation in May 2026, as the pace of capital value declines slowed further despite continued weakening in transaction volumes. This comprehensive monthly edition of the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) highlights shifting dynamics, including the apartment sub-market recording its first annual decline in six years.

• Citywide residential capital values (VPI) dipped to 222.1 points, reflecting a softer monthly drop of 1.2% while maintaining an overall positive annual growth of 2.5%.
• Villa capital values eased to 297.3 points, falling 1.4% monthly with an annual gain of 5%. Notably, older freehold villa communities remain valued 191% above post-pandemic levels and 78% higher than the 2014 market peak.
• Apartment values recorded a marginal monthly decline of 0.9% to reach 170 points. On an annual basis, the apartment VPI registered its first decline in six years, with values 1.4% lower compared to the same period last year.
• Off-plan (Oqood) registrations accounted for 77% of total residential sales but fell sharply by 29.3% monthly and 41.4% year-on-year.
• Ready home transactions experienced a steep annual drop of 55.1% and declined by 18.5% compared to the previous month.
• Ultra-prime market activity remained present, with 16 ready-property transactions exceeding AED 30 million, including 11 deals priced above AED 50 million across highly desired areas like Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Hills Estate, and Emirates Hills.

• Institutional investors and family offices requiring a valuation-anchored monthly baseline to track potential market stabilisation and navigate the first annual decline in apartment values in six years.
• Lenders and risk management teams seeking independent, evidence-based metrics on the steep 55.1% annual drop in ready home sales and the 41.4% decline in off-plan registrations to accurately underwrite real estate exposure.
• Real estate developers requiring clear monthly visibility into sub-market momentum and buyer liquidity to strategically adapt pricing and inventory rollouts amidst weakening transaction volumes.
• High-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and active market participants seeking to validate pricing and entry strategies in ultra-prime locations consistently handling transactions above AED 50 million.
• Policymakers and government entities focused on monitoring month-on-month market resilience and the establishment of sustainable price plateaus within the freehold property sector.

This comprehensive monthly index equips decision-makers with the empirical clarity required to navigate Dubai's evolving residential property cycle in May 2026.

• Benchmark individual residential assets and portfolios against authoritative, citywide monthly capital value trajectories to track the softening of recent market declines.
• Understand the precise valuation dynamics comparing current freehold apartment and villa values against historical benchmarks, such as post-pandemic floors and 2014 market peaks.
• Evaluate shifting market liquidity through detailed month-on-month and year-on-year analyses of off-plan registrations and ready home transaction trends.
• Support complex pricing, acquisition, and risk mitigation decisions using an independent, valuation-led index based on actual monthly market data.