Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s top real estate developers will again report double-digit percentage increases in second-quarter profits, analysts forecast, with no indication that slowing property price rises will impact earnings.
Emaar Properties is Dubai’s leading developer and has long been the bellwether of the emirate’s bourse, while Abu Dhabi’s Aldar Properties, which merged with rival Sorouh Real Estate in 2013, is dominant in the UAE capital.
Indarpreet Singh, assistant vice president for research at Bahrain’s Sico Bank, has buy ratings on the stocks of Aldar and Emaar, predicting the two companies will “sustain strong growth rates” in both the second quarter and second half of 2025 and noting their combined order backlog totals about AED183 billion ($40 billion).
“These companies recognise revenue on a percentage of completion basis and should see a pick up in recognised revenue and earnings as execution ramps up,” says Singh.
Sico forecasts Emaar Properties’s second-quarter net profit will rise 56 percent year on year to AED3.8 billion and that its development subsidiary, which is also listed on Dubai’s bourse, will report a 83 percent jump in quarterly profit to AED2.2 billion.
Such earnings would eclipse the first quarter when Emaar Properties and Emaar Development posted year on year profit rises of 27 and 48 percent respectively.
Aldar’s second-quarter profit will be AED1.8 billion, up 17 percent over the same timeframe, according to Sico, which would be a smaller increase than its first-quarter profit rise of 25 percent.
Nikhil Mishra, a senior research analyst at Abu Dhabi’s Al Ramz Capital, said UAE developers “should maintain similarly strong results, due to substantial revenue backlogs, continued recognition of revenue as projects reach construction milestones and sustained sales momentum”.
He has overweight ratings, which is similar to a buy rating, on both Aldar and Emaar Properties.
Emaar Properties listed on the Dubai Financial Market in March 2000. It’s share price closed on Tuesday at AED13.85, up around 17 percent year to date.
Aldar Properties listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange in April 2005. It’s share price closed on Tuesday at AED9.06, up 18 percent year to date.
The UAE’s real estate outlook
June’s Iran-Israel war had “no impact” on UAE real estate, says Haider Tuaima, head of research and managing director at Dubai’s ValuStrat.
“Dubai’s real estate sector is approaching a peak where prices will stabilise and then begin to decline, but that is a usual part of the cycle and has nothing to do with external events,” says Tuaima. “Prices are continuing to rise, but developers’ costs are also increasing, land is more expensive, so too are construction materials.”
Dubai residential capital values are increasing month-on-month, but the rate of growth is slowing. For villas, it is now 1.9 percent, down from 2.4 percent in June last year, according to ValuStrat,
“You might think that’s a tiny drop, but it adds up and eventually it will decline to zero,” says Tuaima.
ValuStrat’s Dubai residential price index reached a record high of 218 points in May, up 1.6 percent versus April and 25 percent higher year on year. The index has surged from 100 in January 2021, indicating prices have more than doubled since then.
Yet the market appears to be cooling.
“There’s a slowdown in sales activity, especially for ready-to-move-in homes whose buyers tend to be end users and so won’t re-sell anytime soon,” says Tuaima. “That means the number of ready homes available for sale is declining. Although it is a seller’s market, it’s now taking longer to sell a property which indicates sellers are finding it more difficult to get the price they’re asking for.”
The dollar’s slump, it is down 11 percent this year versus a basket of other major currencies, is making materials imported from non-dollar-pegged countries costlier. Conversely, Dubai property has become cheaper for potential buyers from non-dollar jurisdictions.
“Isolating the impact of currency movements is not straight-forward,” adds Mishra. “Multiple macro, sector, and company-specific factors simultaneously influence demand and cost dynamics.”
For a detailed perspective on the property market, visit: Dubai - VPI Residential Capital Values - June 2025
