Dubai - Real Estate Review - Q3 2025

The Dubai real estate market experienced easing residential capital gains and stabilising rents during the third quarter of 2025, contrasting with record highs in off-plan transactions and sustained commercial sector growth. This comprehensive quarterly review equips decision-makers with a valuation-anchored analysis of the shifting dynamics across the emirate's property landscape.

• Citywide residential capital values (VPI) reached 230.6 points, rising 4.4% quarterly and 21.3% annually. This marks a moderation in growth momentum compared to the 23.9% annual increase seen in the previous quarter.
• Villas continued to significantly outperform apartments due to limited supply in highly sought-after locations, with post-pandemic villa values generally tripling and, in some prime communities, quadrupling.
• Residential transaction volumes reached over 58,116 for the quarter (a 15.9% quarterly increase), with off-plan sales dominating the market and accounting for 77% of the total.
• Conversely, the secondary market experienced a decline, as ready home sales volume fell on both a quarterly and annual basis, accompanied by a 19% quarterly drop in average ticket size to AED 2.44 million.
• The commercial office sector recorded robust expansion, with the Office VPI climbing 5.6% quarterly and 27.5% annually to 277.8 points. Office asking rents rose 4% during the quarter to AED 2,127 per square metre, sitting 30.9% higher than the previous year.
• Industrial logistics warehouses outperformed, recording annual capital gains of 16.4% and an accelerated quarterly growth of 5.4%.
• Macroeconomic drivers remained strong, with Dubai's official population crossing the 4 million mark after adding nearly 194,000 new residents in the first three quarters of the year.

• Institutional investors and family offices requiring a valuation-anchored baseline to track moderating residential capital growth and identify sustained commercial yield.
• Lenders and risk management teams seeking independent, evidence-based metrics on the AED 23 billion in quarterly mortgage transactions to accurately underwrite real estate exposure.
• Real estate developers requiring clear visibility into record-breaking off-plan absorption rates versus declining secondary market liquidity to strategically time future project launches.
• Multinational corporations and corporate occupiers evaluating Grade A office supply constraints and rising asking rents to plan strategic leasing and consolidation.
• High-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and active market participants seeking to validate pricing and entry strategies within outperforming prime villa and apartment segments.

This comprehensive index equips decision-makers with the empirical clarity required to navigate Dubai's transitioning property cycle.

• Benchmark individual residential and commercial assets against authoritative, citywide capital value trajectories to optimise portfolio performance.
• Understand the precise valuation dynamics between record off-plan momentum and softening ready home liquidity.
• Support complex pricing, acquisition, commercial leasing, and lending decisions backed by an independent, evidence-led valuation framework.
• Track shifting market fundamentals through a detailed analysis of residential supply pipelines, shifting transaction ticket sizes, and stabilising rental values.