Dubai - Real Estate Review Q4 2025

The Dubai real estate market continued to expand during the fourth quarter of 2025, transitioning into a phase of market normalisation characterised by moderating capital growth and tightly constrained supply. This comprehensive quarterly review equips decision-makers with a valuation-anchored analysis of the emirate's property market at the close of the year.

• Citywide residential capital values (VPI) reached 240.4 points, recording a 4.3% quarterly increase and a 19.8% annual rise, confirming a gradual deceleration after several years of rapid appreciation.
• The villa market continued to outperform apartments due to structural scarcity, while apartment growth remained positive but measured.
• Sustained demographic expansion continues to place upward pressure on housing demand, with the estimated 2025 resident population nearing 4.5 million and the peak-hour population expanding to approximately 6.1 million.
• Supply delivery remained heavily constrained, with actual completions in 2025 reaching only 36,000 units—just 59% of preliminary estimates—suggesting further downward revisions to future supply.
• Residential transaction volumes reached 53,666 for the quarter, while average residential ticket sizes increased by 3.4% quarterly to AED 2.52 million.
• The commercial office sector delivered robust quarterly performance, with the Office VPI reaching 288.9 points (a 4% quarterly increase) and asking rents climbing to AED 2,153 per square metre.
• The industrial market reached 171.5 VPI points, reflecting a 2.7% quarterly gain, driven by logistics demand and a tight supply of modern warehouse stock.
• The hospitality sector recorded an 80.4% occupancy rate for the first eleven months of the year, alongside a 10.6% year-on-year increase in RevPAR to AED 448..

• Institutional investors and family offices requiring a valuation-anchored baseline for asset allocation and portfolio strategy amidst a moderating growth phase.
• Lenders and risk management teams seeking independent, evidence-based metrics on the balance between cash and mortgage transactions to accurately underwrite real estate exposure.
• Real estate developers requiring clear visibility into residential absorption rates, secondary market liquidity, and upcoming supply to inform project pipelines.
• Policymakers and government entities focused on monitoring sustainable price growth and long-term sector resilience against the backdrop of an expanding peak-hour population.
• High-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and active market participants seeking to validate pricing, entry, and exit strategies in prime residential and established communities.

This comprehensive index equips decision-makers with the empirical clarity required to navigate Dubai's transitioning property cycle.

• Benchmark individual assets and institutional portfolios against authoritative, citywide capital value trajectories for both villas and apartments.
• Understand the precise performance dynamics within the prime segment to optimise high-value real estate investments.
• Support complex pricing, acquisition, disposal, and lending decisions backed by an independent, valuation-led framework.
• Track market liquidity through comprehensive data on secondary home transaction volumes, average ticket sizes, and mortgage activity to time market cycles.